China Textile Industry Association May 4, 2018 organized by China Textile Industry Association executive director will be the fifth of six Zhangcha in Foshan, Guangdong, China Knitting Industry Association, and the same period, Guangdong Province Textile Association jointly organized the "China Textile Zhangcha Raw yarn fabric conference and exhibition." The main contents of the meeting are as follows:
I. Development status and trend of China's textile industry and cotton textile industry
In February 2018, China's cotton textile prosperity index was 46.99, and the industry's prosperity was not high. The main reason was that the Spring Festival factory holiday, textile companies have slowed down in procurement, production and sales. The decline in the index is a seasonal decline, and the overall operation of the industry is in a stable state. After the Spring Festival, textile and garment enterprises resumed work and resumed normal production. In March, China's cotton textile prosperity index has increased significantly. Overall, the cotton textile climate index is on the rise from the previous year.
With the implementation of “ Made in China 2025â€, the Chinese textile industry, as a traditional pillar industry in China, is undergoing a revolution as the gap between traditional textile technology and new technology continues to widen. With the release of the " 13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Textile Industry ", the Chinese textile industry has officially entered a transformation of intelligence and digitalization. Among them, the development of automation, digitalization, and intelligent textile equipment, the promotion of smart factory (workshop) construction, and the development of large-scale personalized customization are all included in the key tasks for the next five years.
Second, China cotton market situation analysis / analysis of international cotton market and trade situation
1. Analysis of the situation of China's cotton market
In the late 2017 cotton year, the downstream market was generally warmer, but it was also accompanied by pressure from outside. Cotton prices are expected to stabilize overall, the supply pressure peak or ride a preliminary look at high-quality cotton prices into the strong stage. After China's cotton stocks fell sharply and rapidly, the Chinese cotton industry chain and the global cotton market entered a new “run-in periodâ€.
"Three-wire" Cotton temporary problem can not be resolved, related technology still needs to be improved, cotton yarn and cotton spreads rise. In 2018 the number of import quotas of cotton still 89.4 million tons of cotton reserves of high-quality cotton fewer and fewer, high-quality cotton supply gap, non-cotton fiber is expected to still account for a higher proportion of the amount.
2. Analysis of international trade situation
The 2018 trade friction opened the curtain of national environmental reconstruction. The United States and China as the world's second largest economy, and second, the largest exporter of global trade in goods, this is not surprising emergence of friction in the course of trade. This so-called trade friction is no longer a trade friction in the general sense, but actually curbs China's development. Under the leadership of the United States, the international trade family is facing a split, and the world's major economies are under pressure from the sideline team. 2018 means the opening of a new global political and economic cycle.
According to statistics, in 2017, China exported US$12.78 billion in cotton textiles and clothing. According to the current list of price and tax products announced by China and the United States, once the two sides fought, the textile industry will face great pressure, and the export situation of cotton textiles is more severe.
3. Potential crisis under the rapid growth of the global economy
In 2018, the economy as a whole is improving. The International Monetary Fund predicted in April that it will benefit from strong momentum, favorable market sentiment, a loose financial environment and the US's expansionary fiscal policy. It is predicted that the global economy will grow by 3.9% in 2018. The highest since the year. It was 3.1% in 2016 and 3.7% in 2017. However, behind the economic boom is the loosening of monetary policy in the major economies of the world in the past eight years, that is, excessive borrowing, plus the firm implementation of the structural reform of the supply chain, including China’s national storage and storage.
According to the Fed, as of the end of 2017, the United States had a debt balance of 13.15 trillion US dollars, a record high, for five consecutive years of growth, an increase of 572 billion US dollars from the end of 2016. In 2018, the total stock of sovereign debt of OECD member countries reached more than 45 trillion US dollars, much higher than the 25 trillion US dollars in 2008. Most of the debt involved in dealing with the financial crisis will expire in the next few years, and developed countries need to refinance 40% of the stock debt in the next three years. The size of China’s debt rose from $1.7 trillion in 2001 to $25.5 trillion in 2016, an expansion of 15 times. At present, the global debt level is not rising compared with that before the financial crisis. We are at the end of the long-term debt cycle and the US stock market cycle.
Third, the new trend of China's policy
In 2018, China's GDP in the first quarter increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and in 2017, it increased by 6.9% year-on-year. According to the General Administration of Customs, in March, the value of China’s exports increased by 14.4% in the month of March, and a trade deficit of US$4.98 billion appeared. It was the first deficit since February 2017, and the importance of domestic demand was highlighted.
On April 18th, the central bank issued a decision to reduce the deposit reserve of some financial institutions. From April 25th, the deposit reserve ratio of some financial institutions will be lowered to replace the medium-term loan facilities. The central bank requires the relevant financial institutions to mainly use new funds for small and micro enterprise loans, and appropriately reduce the financing costs of small and micro enterprises, and improve financial services for small and micro enterprises. The above requirements will be included in the macro-prudential assessment.
Fourth, the Internet and the textile industry deep integration
In recent years, with the rapid development of Internet applications, the integration of the Internet and traditional cotton spinning in the new era has also become the focus of attention. The use of the Internet (Internet of Things) technology can achieve timely and accurate dynamic supervision of textile raw materials and products, and can realize active financial service models such as warehouse activity and mortgage loans, such as warehouse IoT financial services. It is estimated that the total amount of textile and apparel e-commerce transactions in 2017 was 5.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.65% year-on-year, accounting for 18.11% of the total national e-commerce transactions.
The Internet has superior data transmission, diffusion and processing capabilities. In the case that data has become a key driving factor for the industry's innovation and development, the textile industry must be deeply integrated with the Internet to stimulate and generate innovation and development. It is necessary to actively promote the construction of the Internet of the textile industry, study and formulate planning measures for the textile industry to promote the construction of industrial Internet, and build a regional, professional market, sub-sector (domain) public service platform.
V. Strategy recommendations
1. Increase the annual release of reserve cotton to ensure that it can be used as needed; establish an effective mechanism for the rotation of reserve cotton into the wheel, and implement the normalization of “rotationâ€. The rotation of cotton domestic cotton and imported cotton structure should be properly arranged; Cotton early warning and dynamic balance mechanism, taking corresponding countermeasures for different internal and external cotton price differences;
2, medium-term trends: as a supplement domestic cotton shortfall, additional general trade quotas or sliding tax execution at 1% tariff, the processing trade quotas and general trade quota consolidation; reduce financing costs energy and logistics; to promote credit, stock market , the bond market, the foreign exchange market, the property market healthy development, timely follow-up supervision, eliminate hidden dangers.
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